Since the beginning of 2023, trade turnover between Russia and China has increased by almost 37%

From January to July of this year, the volume of trade between Russia and China increased by nearly 37% and exceeded $134 billion. Experts believe that by the end of 2023, this figure could reach a record $220 billion. At the same time, the authorities have set a longer-term goal of increasing mutual trade turnover to $300 billion.

Currently, Russian companies are actively redirecting supplies of energy resources, food products, metals, and timber to China. Meanwhile, Beijing is ramping up its exports of machinery, electronics, automobiles, clothing, and consumer goods to Russia. According to analysts, the growth in trade turnover between Russia and China is also supported by the increasing share of settlements in national currencies, which already stands at 80%.

According to the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to July, shipments of Russian products to the Asian republic grew by 15.1% to $71.56 billion. At the same time, Beijing’s exports to Moscow surged by 73.4%, reaching $62.54 billion.

Previously, the authorities of both countries agreed to bring mutual trade turnover to $200 billion by 2024. However, given the current momentum, experts are confident that this target may be significantly exceeded as early as 2023.

«It can be expected that by the end of this year, the volume of trade between Russia and China will exceed $220 billion. Moreover, the growth in mutual trade turnover may be supported by the increasing share of settlements in national currencies,» suggested Natalia Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

Today, more than 80% of trade transactions between Moscow and Beijing are conducted in rubles and yuan, whereas previously, settlements were made primarily in US dollars. According to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, by steadily moving away from transactions in US dollars, both sides aim to minimize risks.

A Pivot to the East

Over the past year and a half, Russia–China trade turnover has increased by 29.3% and approached $190.3 billion—a record high in the history of economic relations between the two countries.

Trade turnover is rising sharply, as China has become Russia’s main trading partner in the current environment. Additionally, many Chinese companies are actively replacing Western ones in the Russian market, which is also reflected in mutual trade.

Notably, in 2022, Russian exports to China grew several times faster than imports from China to Russia. However, the situation has since reversed. Russia redirected a significant share of its goods exports to the Asian republic last year, while there is still substantial room for an increase in Chinese product imports to Russia.

In such a short time, Russia has not yet managed to fully replace all the goods previously purchased from the West with its own production. As a result, there is now a clear focus on substituting European and American products with goods from China.