Imported goods in Russian stores may see price increases of 10-30% amid the authorities' active crackdown on grey imports and cargo schemes. According to expert estimates, the most significant rise is expected for categories with high logistics costs, such as electronics and clothing on marketplaces, which are often shipped in small batches.
These forecasts are linked to the implementation of Russian President Vladimir Putin's directive to "whitewash" the economy by 2026. In autumn 2024, the Federal Customs Service (FCS) already sharply increased inspections of freight vehicles at the border with Kazakhstan—a key route for the transit of goods from Kyrgyzstan. By the end of October, over 7,000 vehicles carrying 123,000 tons of illegal cargo had been detained. These measures led to massive queues and forced participants in foreign economic activity to reconfigure their logistics routes.
The authorities' primary goal is to curb cargo schemes, where goods are imported without proper customs clearance through intermediaries, with consolidated shipments and under-declared values. Experts note that Russia has become one of the world's largest hubs for such practices, and now the EAEU countries, fearing secondary Western sanctions, have begun to monitor transit flows more strictly.
The consequences will be painful for the market. According to Roman Samoilov, Head of Practice at Strategy Partners, the acute phase of shortages and price increases could last up to six months. Another approximately 18 months will be needed for some players to transition into the legal field. Some goods may not return to the shelves, making way for local alternatives. However, in the long term, this will strengthen the position of Russian producers, clear the market of counterfeit goods, and create more transparent conditions for honest business.
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These forecasts are linked to the implementation of Russian President Vladimir Putin's directive to "whitewash" the economy by 2026. In autumn 2024, the Federal Customs Service (FCS) already sharply increased inspections of freight vehicles at the border with Kazakhstan—a key route for the transit of goods from Kyrgyzstan. By the end of October, over 7,000 vehicles carrying 123,000 tons of illegal cargo had been detained. These measures led to massive queues and forced participants in foreign economic activity to reconfigure their logistics routes.
The authorities' primary goal is to curb cargo schemes, where goods are imported without proper customs clearance through intermediaries, with consolidated shipments and under-declared values. Experts note that Russia has become one of the world's largest hubs for such practices, and now the EAEU countries, fearing secondary Western sanctions, have begun to monitor transit flows more strictly.
The consequences will be painful for the market. According to Roman Samoilov, Head of Practice at Strategy Partners, the acute phase of shortages and price increases could last up to six months. Another approximately 18 months will be needed for some players to transition into the legal field. Some goods may not return to the shelves, making way for local alternatives. However, in the long term, this will strengthen the position of Russian producers, clear the market of counterfeit goods, and create more transparent conditions for honest business.
Source