Russian e-commerce 2025: slowing growth and a tighter regulatory framework
The results of 2025 in e-commerce signal a fundamental transition of the Russian online retail market into a new phase. The era of breakneck growth has given way to a time of maturity, where the drivers are now regulatory frameworks, industry consolidation, and a fight for profitability. These changes will set the tone for the industry's development for years to come.
Establishing the rules of the game: a legislative breakthrough
The key regulatory event of the year was the adoption of the law "On Regulating the Platform Economy." After several years of discussions and lobbying battles, the document enshrines key concepts ("intermediary digital platform," "platform partner"), prohibits discrimination against sellers and buyers, introduces mandatory pre-trial dispute resolution procedures, and strengthens state oversight. The law comes into force in October 2026, but the largest platforms (Wildberries, Ozon, Avito) have agreed to early compliance with its norms, effectively launching the new rules already.
Slowing growth: the market seeks new avenues for expansion
The market has reached a saturation point:
The growth rate of marketplaces over the first nine months of 2025 halved — from ≈60% to 36.4% (Infoline).
The online grocery market (e-grocery) also showed a slowdown: growth of 28% to 1.15 trillion rubles. The main trend here is a shift in demand toward express delivery.
Consolidation and expansion: leader strategies
Key players responded to the slowdown with aggressive diversification and acquisitions:
Wildberries transformed into a multi-profile holding by acquiring assets in adjacent sectors: the cosmetic retailer Rive Gauche, the online pharmacy Eapteka, the tour operator Fun&Sun, and others. The company is also testing and developing a taxi service in Belarus and Uzbekistan.
Ozon, following its competitor, began to demonstrate profitability (2.9 billion rubles in Q3) and for the first time announced dividend payments.
Logistics Integration: Yandex absorbed Boxberry, X5 Group acquired TopDelivery, and Merlion integrated "Kaktus." Ozon launched "Ozon Logistics" for third-party stores.
Commission hikes and challenges for sellers
In pursuit of profitability, marketplaces actively raised commissions for sellers (Ozon conducted six waves of increases). This, along with growing competition from overseas sellers (particularly from China), who often operate under preferential terms, has created significant pressure on Russian entrepreneurs, sparking talk of a possible renaissance of direct sales (D2C). Responding to market demand, Yandex launched a Shopify analog — the service "Yandex Kit" for creating independent online stores.
Battle for the wallet: marketplaces vs. traditional banks
One of the most acute conflicts of the year was the attack by major banks (Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, etc.) on the marketplace business model. Bankers demanded a ban on platforms offering direct discounts to customers, accusing them of using their own banks for unfair competition and tax underpayment. In response, Wildberries launched a large-scale PR campaign in its defense, while Ozon chose a negotiation tactic, inviting banks to join its loyalty program. The outcome of this confrontation, a decision on which is expected from the government, will determine the financial conditions in the market.
Technological trend: personalization through AI
The year confirmed that the future of e-commerce lies in hyper-personalization. While virtual fitting rooms have not yet found mass demand, AI assistants and shopping helpers (like those in Yandex Market) have become a reality, helping users find the right products faster through complex and voice queries.
Key Takeaways of 2025
The legislative framework is established. The main rules for platforms are set, and the industry is beginning to operate under them.
The phase of extensive growth is over. Marketplaces and retailers are forced to seek new sources of income through diversification, increased efficiency, and capturing adjacent markets.
The war of ecosystems is intensifying. The conflict between marketplaces and banks is only the first major episode in the battle for control over money and consumer loyalty in the new digital reality.
Pressure on sellers is increasing. In the new conditions, sellers need to revise their business models, diversifying sales channels.
2025 became a moment of truth for Russian e-commerce, when the industry, having passed the stage of rapid growth, began to build a more complex, regulated, and competitive environment, where only those who quickly adapt will be able to win.