The draft budget for 2026 stipulates an increase in the basic VAT rate from 20% to 22%. According to the Ministry of Finance, the additional revenue will be directed toward funding the defense sector and security.
In 2019, the VAT rate rose from 18% to 20%. According to Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina, inflation increased by just 0.6–0.7 percentage points as a result. She emphasized that the Central Bank favors a balanced budget over a rising deficit, as this supports stability and keeps inflation in check.
Sergey Dyachkov from DSO Consulting noted that the previous VAT hike affected the economy for no more than a quarter. He believes that another 2% increase will again cause a short-term rise in prices, but it won’t be the last tax change.
Dmitry Morkovkin, Associate Professor at the Financial University, added that the price reaction depends on the industry and business costs: prices will go up in line with the tax, but no sharp spikes are expected. The Central Bank forecasts stability.
Sharif Galeev from Delovye Resheniya i Tekhnologii believes that on competitive markets price growth may be offset by lower seller margins.
Impact on business
"Opora Rossii" notes that in addition to the VAT increase, discussions are underway regarding the cancellation of insurance contribution benefits and lowering the revenue threshold for SMEs to 10 million rubles, after which businesses would have to pay VAT. Small businesses won’t be able to fully pass on these costs to consumers—markups would only increase by 2–5%.
The removal of insurance benefits in certain sectors will raise payroll costs to 30% and could result in higher unemployment. The higher the cost of labor, the fewer workers companies can afford.
Natalia Pyatykh, head of the Siberian Chefs Guild, notes that due to the economic downturn, restaurant attendance has dropped sharply, leading to decreased profitability while expenses remain the same or even rise.
She notes that a 2% VAT increase will push up costs by at least 2%, and often by 5–6%. Restaurants will have to raise prices or increase turnover, which is difficult amid ongoing stagnation.
Since 2020, the state has stopped supporting the restaurant sector, and taxes have increased. According to experts, further tax increases could lead to even more closures in the industry.
Source
In 2019, the VAT rate rose from 18% to 20%. According to Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina, inflation increased by just 0.6–0.7 percentage points as a result. She emphasized that the Central Bank favors a balanced budget over a rising deficit, as this supports stability and keeps inflation in check.
Sergey Dyachkov from DSO Consulting noted that the previous VAT hike affected the economy for no more than a quarter. He believes that another 2% increase will again cause a short-term rise in prices, but it won’t be the last tax change.
Dmitry Morkovkin, Associate Professor at the Financial University, added that the price reaction depends on the industry and business costs: prices will go up in line with the tax, but no sharp spikes are expected. The Central Bank forecasts stability.
Sharif Galeev from Delovye Resheniya i Tekhnologii believes that on competitive markets price growth may be offset by lower seller margins.
Impact on business
"Opora Rossii" notes that in addition to the VAT increase, discussions are underway regarding the cancellation of insurance contribution benefits and lowering the revenue threshold for SMEs to 10 million rubles, after which businesses would have to pay VAT. Small businesses won’t be able to fully pass on these costs to consumers—markups would only increase by 2–5%.
The removal of insurance benefits in certain sectors will raise payroll costs to 30% and could result in higher unemployment. The higher the cost of labor, the fewer workers companies can afford.
Natalia Pyatykh, head of the Siberian Chefs Guild, notes that due to the economic downturn, restaurant attendance has dropped sharply, leading to decreased profitability while expenses remain the same or even rise.
She notes that a 2% VAT increase will push up costs by at least 2%, and often by 5–6%. Restaurants will have to raise prices or increase turnover, which is difficult amid ongoing stagnation.
Since 2020, the state has stopped supporting the restaurant sector, and taxes have increased. According to experts, further tax increases could lead to even more closures in the industry.
Source